The SMU Mustangs will try to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they host the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon. SMU opened its campaign with blowout wins over North Texas and Lamar, but the Mustangs came up short at Maryland last week. TCU had last week off after beating Colorado and Tarleton State.
Kickoff is set for noon ET. The Horned Frogs are favored by two points in the latest SMU vs. TCU odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 70.5. Before entering any TCU vs. SMU picks, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 4 of the 2022 college football season on a 51-43 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- SMU vs. TCU spread: SMU +2
- SMU vs. TCU over/under: 70.5 points
- SMU vs. TCU picks: See picks here
Featured Game | SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Why SMU can cover
SMU had to play on the road for two of its first three games, so the Mustangs will be happy to return home on Saturday. They came up short as underdogs at Maryland last week, but they blew out North Texas and Lamar in their first two games this season. Senior quarterback Tanner Mordecai has already thrown for 1,013 yards and 10 touchdowns, making him one of the top quarterbacks in the country.
He has plenty of chemistry with senior wide receiver Rashee Rice, who has caught 28 passes for 491 yards and three TDs. TCU only has two games under its belt this season, giving SMU a competitive edge. The Mustangs are 14-2 in their last 16 home games, and they have covered the spread in 12 of the last 18 meetings between these teams.
Why TCU can cover
TCU has already gone on the road and taken care of business once this season, blowing out Colorado in a 38-13 final in its season opener. The Horned Frogs followed that up with another covered spread, beating Tarleton State 59-17 as 40-point favorites. They had the week off last week, allowing them to get fresh and well-prepared for SMU.
Maryland committed 15 penalties last week and still covered the 2.5-point spread in its win over SMU. The Mustangs are not ready to win a game against a high-level team like TCU, which has gone 16-4 in its last 20 games against SMU. TCU has won six consecutive road games at SMU, so it is prepared to add another win to that streak on Saturday.
How to make TCU vs. SMU picks
The model has simulated SMU vs. TCU 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins TCU vs. SMU? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the SMU vs. TCU spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.